Simple numbers

 A skill that I have not yet mastered but hope to: distilling complex investments/ideas into simple numbers. Two examples I've been thinking about:

• AI’s $600B Question | Sequoia Capital from David Cahn, which turns the GPU frenzy into a simple question: AI products ultimately need to generate $600B in revenue (as of 2024; $840B as of summer 2025). The simple number anchors their thinking that investments in GPU infra are likely an expensive -- and unwise -- bet today.
• MSTR (Strategy) Beauty Pageant – Premium to Bitcoin | Markov Processes International - a bit more technical and a little older, but this was a response to the consensus that MSTR traded at a 1.9x premium to its BTC NAV. Markov's simple decomposition showed that you could argue that the MSTR play was not just a BTC play but a leverage (1) tech (150%) and (2) BTC (100%) one, with a short on (3) cash (-60%).